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Author Topic: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only  (Read 36992 times)

vaportrails30

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #30 on: September 27, 2014, 09:58:43 am »

TKO and Ole are the class of the Blue Division.  There will be some interesting battles among numerous teams below that throughout the season to see who grabs the remaining spots for P1 in the Spring.  The loser of Chill and Carpathia this weekend will be in a precarious position.
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Sledhead

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #31 on: September 27, 2014, 10:58:35 am »

Looks to be a couple of good matches at the top of the standings in the 02' Blue Div. TKO/Wolves East & TKO/Ole. I didnt notice any significant match ups in the Red Div.

Good luck to both of you!  May the better team (today) win!
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vaportrails30

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #32 on: September 27, 2014, 12:16:13 pm »

I think we'll see: tko, ole, Wolves east, in P1 for sure. Tigers, LSP and TNT will be close, after that its a crap shoot. We may end up seeing a team or two outside the red and blue divs. Sneak into either P1 or P2.

Agreed.  Vardar South and Windsor are good bets there.  I would have thought Wolves Black too, but they may have hurt themselves by losing last week.  Not sure yet about anyone in that Grey Division.

Red is total crapshoot at the moment with only MI Alliance in good shape.  In Blue after Ole and TKO, it appears Carpathia, Chill, Wolves East, Tigers, and possibly Force will do a lot of knocking each other off and it will be interesting to see who emerges there.  Tigers seem to play up or down to the competition.
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zugzwang

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #33 on: September 30, 2014, 08:59:58 am »

This week the database "predicted" results with 72% accuracy. For ties, a close tie (within 3) is considered accurate.  A far tie is considered inaccurate.  I'll continue to monitor prediction accuracy.  As games continue to be played, I suspect this will go up. 

I've been thinking about how to blend in MRL.  But I'll wait until Spring to do that. 

   Rankings as of September 29, 2014      
                                                                                                               
   Ranking      Team      Win      Loss      Tie      GF      GA      Goal Differential      Avg Goal Diff      Points      Avg Strength of Opponents      Overall Rank   
   1      WINDSOR 02 NATIONALS      3      0      1      22      4      18      4.50      10      -0.15      3.17   
   2      OLE SC '02 BLACK      3      1      1      23      10      13      2.60      10      -0.52      2.94   
   3      TKO CREW JUNIORS 02 GOLD      4      0      1      16      6      10      2.00      13      -0.12      2.84   
   4      MIDLAND SC MIDLAND FUSION 02 GREEN      2      0      3      18      5      13      2.60      9      0.33      2.46   
   5      MICHIGAN REVOLUTION MI REV 02 EAGLES      4      0      0      19      3      16      4.00      12      -1.11      2.45   
   6      MICHIGAN WOLVES EAST 02      2      1      0      7      3      4      1.33      6      -0.34      2.40   
   7      TNT DYNAMITE 02 RED      3      0      0      9      2      7      2.33      9      -0.30      2.32   
   8      MICHIGAN ALLIANCE FC 02      4      1      1      18      6      12      2.00      13      -0.23      2.19   
   9      CHILL SBC 02 BOYS BLUE      2      1      2      11      6      5      1.00      8      -0.56      2.12   
   10      ANN ARBOR UNITED SC 02 ROYAL      2      1      1      13      6      7      1.75      7      0.35      2.05   
   11      MICHIGAN TIGERS FC 02 GOLD      3      2      0      9      11      -2      -0.40      9      0.16      1.78   
   12      FORCE FC 01/02 BLACK      1      2      0      5      7      -2      -0.67      3      0.15      1.64   
   13      PSG MI NOVA 02 BLACK      2      1      1      5      3      2      0.50      7      -0.19      1.45   
   14      VARDAR SOUTH U13 BOYS 1ST TEAM      4      0      0      23      1      22      5.50      12      -0.26      1.42   
   15      LAKESHORE PREMIER SC '02      1      3      0      5      4      1      0.25      3      -0.11      1.37   
   16      MICHIGAN RUSH DOWNRIVER 02B      2      1      2      10      10      0      0.00      8      0.57      1.28   
   17      TROY SC STING 02      0      0      4      2      2      0      0.00      4      -0.10      1.25   
   18      CARPATHIA KICKERS 02 BLUE      0      3      1      4      11      -7      -1.75      1      0.38      1.22   
   19      SOCS FORCE 02 NAVY      5      0      0      20      2      18      3.60      15      0.14      1.12   
   20      SCOR MEULENTSEEN U13 BOYS PREMIER      0      1      3      2      4      -2      -0.50      3      -0.23      0.94   
   21      SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SWM KICKERS 02 WHITE      1      3      1      18      21      -3      -0.60      4      0.38      0.89   
   22      DEARBORN DRIVE 02 BLACK      6      0      0      29      1      28      4.67      18      -0.53      0.77   
   23      MICHIGAN RUSH NORTHVILLE 02B      2      2      1      5      9      -4      -0.80      7      -0.37      0.72   
   24      KINGDOM PREMIER 02 RED      2      2      0      10      12      -2      -0.50      6      -0.24      0.63   
   25      VARDAR MICHIGAN RED 02      0      3      0      2      11      -9      -3.00      0      0.44      0.62   
   26      MICHIGAN BURN 02 BLACK      1      1      1      1      7      -6      -2.00      4      0.19      0.40   
   27      MICHIGAN IMPACT 02 BOYS      2      2      0      12      5      7      1.75      6      0.28      0.27   
   28      ROYSA RENEGADES 02 BOYS GREEN      3      0      1      9      1      8      2.00      10      -0.32      0.09   
   29      ALLIANCE FC '02 BLACK      0      2      1      1      8      -7      -2.33      1      -0.11      0.08   
   30      GROSSE POINTE SA SALVO 02 GREEN      3      1      0      10      1      9      2.25      9      0.37      0.01   
   31      CANTON CELTIC 02 WHITE      4      0      1      19      2      17      3.40      13      -0.95      -0.08   
   32      PSG LANSING NOVA 02 BLACK      0      2      1      0      6      -6      -2.00      1      -0.22      -0.11   
   33      SAGINAW STORM 02 GREEN      1      2      0      7      5      2      0.67      3      0.40      -0.21   
   34      FC ELITE '02      3      1      0      16      5      11      2.75      9      -0.64      -0.24   
   35      AC MILAN DETROIT 02      0      2      1      4      18      -14      -4.67      1      0.37      -0.25   
   36      CARPATHIA KICKERS 02 YELLOW      2      2      1      11      9      2      0.40      7      0.45      -0.33   
   37      ROCHESTER SC LIGHTNING 02 WHITE      0      4      0      2      16      -14      -3.50      0      0.15      -0.37   
   38      MICHIGAN WOLVES 02 BLACK      2      2      1      17      7      10      2.00      7      -0.51      -0.46   
   39      MICHIGAN WOLVES EAST 02 RED      0      4      1      2      16      -14      -2.80      1      -0.11      -0.46   
   40      TRAVERSE BAY AREA YS NORTH STORM 02      3      1      1      16      9      7      1.40      10      -0.52      -0.76   
   41      GRAND RAPIDS CREW JUNIORS 02 BLACK      2      0      2      7      3      4      1.00      8      -0.13      -0.77   
   42      MICHIGAN RUSH JACKSON 02B      3      1      1      13      10      3      0.60      10      0.17      -0.82   
   43      WAZA FC EAST 02 BLACK      1      0      1      4      2      2      1.00      4      -0.56      -1.08   
   44      MICHIGAN ARROWS 02 BOYS      1      1      1      7      6      1      0.33      4      -0.32      -1.19   
   45      MICHIGAN ALLIANCE FC 02 BOYS BLUE      2      2      1      10      9      1      0.20      7      -0.15      -1.28   
   46      UNITED FC MICHIGAN UFC 02B GR      1      2      0      3      7      -4      -1.33      3      1.00      -1.37   
   47      WAYNE-WESTLAND ARSENAL 02      5      0      0      21      3      18      3.60      15      -0.62      -1.56   
   48      LAPEER UNITED LUFC '02 BOYS      1      4      0      3      32      -29      -5.80      3      0.24      -1.78   
   49      CHILL SBC 02 BOYS WHITE      2      1      0      10      3      7      2.33      6      -0.02      -1.89   
   50      ROCHESTER SC LIGHTNING 02 BLUE      1      1      0      4      8      -4      -2.00      3      -0.33      -1.92   
   51      TROY SC ROCKETS 02      0      4      0      2      12      -10      -2.50      0      -0.10      -2.05   
   52      LA FORZA SC LAFORZA 02 BLUE      2      0      1      11      6      5      1.67      7      0.17      -2.13   
   53      MICHIGAN FIRE JR'S U13 (02) WHITE/GIBSON      0      2      1      2      11      -9      -3.00      1      1.15      -2.22   
   54      RAPIDS FC GREEN      0      4      0      0      11      -11      -2.75      0      -0.12      -2.64   
   55      FORCE FC 01/02 WHITE      1      2      0      1      13      -12      -4.00      3      0.11      -2.69   
   56      MICHIGAN RUSH CA 02B      1      3      0      5      18      -13      -3.25      3      0.43      -2.71   
   57      MICHIGAN JAGUARS CW3 JAGUARS 02 RED      2      1      0      9      6      3      1.00      6      -0.35      -2.72   
   58      ELK RAPIDS CRUSH 02FC      0      5      0      2      20      -18      -3.60      0      0.73      -2.74   
   59      MICHIGAN TIGERS FC 02 SILVER      2      2      0      7      6      1      0.25      6      0.08      -2.89   
   60      MICHIGAN JAGUARS '02 WHITE      1      3      0      3      19      -16      -4.00      3      0.25      -3.07   
   61      SASA SALINE 02 STING BLACK      0      5      0      3      27      -24      -4.80      0      0.46      -3.47   
   62      FC BOLTON MEULENSTEEN 02 BOYS BLACK      0      3      0      3      19      -16      -5.33      0      0.36      -3.69   
   63      PLYMOUTH REIGN 02 GREEN      1      1      0      2      5      -3      -1.50      3      0.00      -3.80   
   64      MICHIGAN ALLIANCE FC 02 BOYS GREY      0      4      0      1      10      -9      -2.25      0      0.12      -4.12   
   65      MICHIGAN JAGUARS '02 BLACK      1      3      1      6      18      -12      -2.40      4      0.25      -4.13   
   66      AC MILAN DETROIT 02 BLACK      0      4      0      4      16      -12      -3.00      0      0.37      -4.36   
                                                                                                               
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garandsrus

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #34 on: September 30, 2014, 09:26:41 am »

That's pretty good prediction percentage.  Just out of curiosity, what the heck is a "close tie" and "far tie"?  I don't get it...
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Blueman

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #35 on: September 30, 2014, 09:45:25 am »

Does Vegas no about this ?
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zugzwang

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #36 on: September 30, 2014, 09:57:08 am »

That's pretty good prediction percentage.  Just out of curiosity, what the heck is a "close tie" and "far tie"?  I don't get it...

Close tie = team 1 is ranked #2.  Team 2 is ranked #3.  They tie.  I called it a good prediction.
Far tie = team 1 is ranked #10. Team 2 is ranked #50. I called it a bad prediction.

But I should probably use rank score instead of rank listing number.

It might be considered unfair for me to call either an actual tie or a win an accurate prediction.  It must be one or the other.  If I call all the ties wrong predictions, then my rankings got it 68% right.

Also, as an aside: "goals for" and "goals against" on the MSPSP site are wrong.  These totals are accurate.

My top 10 includes 4 Yellow division teams.  I'm rethinking my weighted rank.  Because what it does, is it takes the results from August tournaments, and either boosts or docks an entire MSPSL division equally, when some teams should be moved up and sometimes should not be. 

Dearborn Drive should be ranked higher.  Midland Fusion, probably lower.  (Nothing personal!)

In fact, I'm feeling more strongly than ever that ranking 1-to-whatever is really dumb.  I do it due to the lack of anything better that I can easily execute.  Even with number rankings, it should be assumed that teams +/- 5 (or more) generally can easily be taken down by their listing neighbors, depending upon what kind of day it is.  What I'd really like to do, is a nebulous 2-D cloud visualization with X and Y demonstrating different variables (including winning or losing "trends"), rather than a straight 1-to-66, which doesn't represent reality at all.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2014, 03:11:22 pm by zugzwang »
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02BoysRankings

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #37 on: October 02, 2014, 01:10:31 pm »

It's time to play the music.  It's time to light the lights!  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJ9yAV8uQ7g   It's time to get things started at.......

THIS WEEK IN 02BOYS SOCCER!


MRL:

Last week:  Waza East records 4-1 and 4-0 against the bottom dwellers of the U13 First East Blue (FEB) division.  A good trip to Barberton for the boys!
This week:   Jags head to Westfield Indiana looking to stay even with Pacesetter at the top of the standings in FEB.  Over in PQD East Blue, Waza West and Fire travel to Cleveland; Fire, like Waza East, face their fellow cellar dwellers.  In PQD East Red......nothing.  MRL must mean “does not play much”.....

MSPSL Part One:

In the Red Division Last Week: Oh Mr. Whipple!  Some of these teams and results are squeezably soft! 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoHhzyh9kCg

We will start with SCOR (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXen0WzwADQ), the only club whose name is also an oxymoron!   The good news?  They increased their Goals For total by 50% to 3 this weekend, getting 1 against Alliance.  But then two pillow fights!  Scoreless draw against Troy (of course they tied Troy!) and another scoreless draw against Rush.  Maybe instead of penalties the kids can play a rousing game ofr sharks and minnows to determine a winner (the thought of SCOR taking penalties boggles the mind.  Don't dwell on that...)

Kudos to MI Alliance for doing what you should do when confronted with pillows, marshmellows, and flowers.....put up 7 and shake hands as the other team heads home.  Kudos to TNT for doing what you should do when confronted with tissue paper, sunshine, and rainbows.  Win and move on.

This Week:  The immovable object meets the unstoppable force.  Troy does nothing but tie....RSC gives up 3 goals to every opponent.  I'm guessing it's either a 3-3 or 0-0 tie on Saturday.   TNT travels east to PSG on Sunday in what look to be one of the better Red matchups of the year.

In the Blue Division:  TKO (go ahead, sing it LL!) picks up four points off Wolves East and Ole to retain their place on top of the standings.   I need to go to one of these fabled TKO / OLE matchups.  Bad refs, yellow cards, lots of goals, parents screaming (in multiple languages too!). 

Chill and Carpathis take lessons from the Red Division and pull out the pillows, and Force records a nice win against Vardar Red. 

This Week:  Wolves host the Tigers....here at TWIS we have been stumped on a song or saying for the Wolves, since, unlike other clubs, they have a handy nickname ready to go.  We've chosen Warren Zevon, because, well, Warren Zevon is the man.  http://youtu.be/nhSc8qVMjKM.   If you wish, you may consider the alternate choice, which is recommended because a) there aren't too many songs with lycanthropy in the lyrics and b) well, it's Shakira, and any Shakira video is worth watching!  http://youtu.be/booKP974B0k

Teams we wouldn't expect to be playing on a Friday night:  Ole, all the way across the state in Bloomfield Hills. 

MSPSL Part Two:

Unbeaten watch:  We drop Kingdom (should have dropped them last week...the score posted late?) and continue to 'holla' at the survivors.  (Vardar South, Dearborn Drive, FC Elite, and MI Revolution).  Special shout out to VS and DD...who are doing it in dominating fashion.  We'll speculate on where they end up in the spring in a future edition.  Revolution gets Windsor on Sunday so we'll see how they fare next week.

Zugzwang's Rankings:

Seems like those Yellow teams are ranked disproportionately high....buoyed by one team (Windsor's) performance in August?
(note....missed zugzwang's second post where he talks about this.  Comment withdrawn.  Looking forward to the EA-sports-simulations of games.  Let me know when you get to player rankings...my son would like a few more points in whatever system you come up with!)

The TWIS Rant of the Week: (sponsored by EM - http://youtu.be/ewvQWuRUhM0)

Look, there are a lot of good reasons to choose a team, or a coach, or a club.  But I read this as part of one of the never-ending Fire rants

“The website is out of date”

and had to laugh.  Have you looked around out there?!?  What websites are “up to date”?   MRL teams all pretty much have the same approach; update in the summer and provide some updates as news on the front page.  Team pages seem to be optional; Wolves, Jags, Vardar, Waza (West's page at 02 is a little more updated than East's page...we assume that's a manager or coach based decision) all have team pages that were updated in the summer.   Canton, Crew, and Fire have reasonably decent club pages but the team page is nothing, again, is that on the coach, manager, or club?

It doesn't get much better as you move into MSPSP.....Tigers, TKO, TNT, and Wolves East don't seem to have anything updated since tryouts on either the club pages or on team pages (if they exist).   I'm not even going to get into trying to explain the PSG website...trying to track their affiliates through there is like Alice going into Wonderland.

Social media (website, facebook, twitter) is like a garden...if you don't take care of it you're not going to get anything from it.  We walk by those yards in our neighborhoods that look like Shite and snicker, snort disdainfully, and walk on.   And we remember that.

Those social media platform interactions do very little for anybody reading this forum; if you've found your way here you're probably savvy enough to not be swayed by the lack of information you find there.  But if you are looking at little Debbie (not the snack cake!) and thinking she might be good enough to try soccer at a higher level, well, that first click on your website for information means a lot.  And a lot of clubs suck at it.

Mini-rant:  (mini-sponsored by WEC  http://youtu.be/itC3SKZzveQ  )

If you are part of a club that is active on social media, please consider the following:

1)  Selectively only posting winning scores is noticed.  Losing is not a scarlet 'L' you carry around for the week, it is a teaching moment (hopefully).
2)  If you are skilled or lucky enough to beat a quality opponent, yes, a little bragging about it is welcome.  If you beat Vardar Red 4-0 or Tigers Silver 3-0 and post “Boys beat Vardar 4-0 and Tigers 3-0 playing some downright awesome footie this weekend” you need to reconsider your omissions.  The post, or tweet, or whatever, goes from being about your teams clean sheets to your lying-by-omission.
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vaportrails30

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #38 on: October 02, 2014, 01:35:14 pm »

Does anyone have much of an idea exactly how things will proceed from Blue/Red to P1/P2 in the Spring?  Will it simply be the top 5 in each going into P1 or would total points per game (since Blue plays 8 games, Red 9) figure into it regardless of division?  If it's the latter then it's conceivable all the Red games ending in draws could hurt some teams in there since fewer overall points are being awarded in those game, and allow maybe an additional Blue team a chance to get in there if those teams are able to get Ws.

I'd say the non-Red/Blue sleepers would be Windsor and Vardar South, with Midland not far behind.  Dearborn is doing some impressive work in Grey but am not sure yet if that is perhaps more due to the competition since they were a lower half team in WSSL last Spring.  Some of those teams will probably end up up in P2.  Wolves Black is one that is not doing as well as expected.

As far as social media goes, I particularly like it when they'll post about making the finals of a tournament.  Never mind that it's division 3 of the age group, and the division only had 4 teams.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2014, 01:39:42 pm by vaportrails30 »
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OldOnionSack

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #39 on: October 02, 2014, 01:36:59 pm »

Well played Zug 02BR!  Thanks for the time and energy in putting that missive together.

Very enjoyable!
« Last Edit: October 02, 2014, 04:47:55 pm by OldOnionSack »
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"Never attribute to malice what may be adequately accounted for by stupidity" or  “If you get up in the morning and you meet an a**hole, you met an a**hole. If you meet nothing but a**holes all day, you’re the a**hole.”

zugzwang

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #40 on: October 02, 2014, 02:03:25 pm »

Not me, but thanks!  02 plays funny to my straight. Together, we transcend ... sumpin.
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Blueman

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #41 on: October 02, 2014, 05:11:12 pm »

O2,you have been placed on the waiting list for the Hall of Fame . I predict a 3rd ballot win.
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02soccer

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #42 on: October 03, 2014, 08:34:33 pm »

Actually FC Elite lost last weekend 1 to 0 at home and Dearborn Drive continued winning with a 1 to 0 win over GPSA Salvo 02 Green
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vaportrails30

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #43 on: October 06, 2014, 08:52:25 am »

Doubt that many from Blue/Red will fall all the way to C1.  Will be interesting overall to see though how many from White, Grey, Yellow can sneak up into P2 or even P1 though.
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02BoysRankings

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Re: 02 Boys Rankings, MSPSP only
« Reply #44 on: October 06, 2014, 08:56:58 am »

TWIS will speculate on the future divisions in a week or two after our actuarial staff have a chance to finish their calculations.

But, the amount of teams in each division is a good topic as well!  With actual real data!

                   P1   P2   C1
Spring 2014   11   9   9
Spring 2013   10   10   10
Spring 2012   10   11   11
Spring 2011   10   10   11
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